The global population is forecast to reach the eight billion mark by 2025, mainly driven by growth in the
Middle East and Africa, and South Asia. A population of eight billion will create significant benefits and
opportunities, as it broadens the global labour force and consumer markets. However, an expanding
population will weigh on global natural resources and the environment, put upward pressures on
commodity prices, while exacerbating poverty problems in some parts of the world.
The global population will
hit eight billion by 2025
Vol 4 Issue 4 • THE GLOBAL POPULATION WILL HIT EIGHT BILLION BY 2025
Key Points
• The global population is forecast to increase by 17.0 percent between 2014
and 2025 to reach 8.0 billion by the end of the period. The Middle East and
Africa will record the fastest growth in population, by 27.0 percent during
the same period. Meanwhile, Eastern Europe will be the only region where
the population is shrinking;
• An expanding human race will lead to larger consumer markets, thus driving
the demand for both necessities and discretionary goods. The world’s total
consumer expenditure is forecast to reach US$62.6 trillion by 2025, up by
44.0 percent in real US$ terms over 2013;
• A young and growing population can be a boon to economic growth as it
increases the workforce and drives output growth. Turkey and Brazil, for
instance, are benefiting from a demographic dividend, with annual real GDP
growth averaging 3.3 percent and 3.1 percent per annum between 2008
and 2013 respectively;
• Scarcity of resources and environmental issues are, however, the key
challenges of a growing global population. Due to soaring fossil fuel energy
consumption, the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions increased by 41.8
percent during the 2000-2013 period;
• Emerging and developing countries will face growing pressures to provide
enough food, energy and urban facilities as well as jobs for their growing
population. By 2025, 57.9 percent of the global population will live in urban
areas. On the other hand, rapid population ageing, coupled with declining
birth rates, will continue to be major challenges for some economies,
especially those in the developed world.
Population Growth Patterns Vary Across Regions
• The global population reached the seven billion milestone in 2012 and stood
at 7.1 billion people as of 2013. Between 2014 and 2025, it is forecast to
expand by 1.0 percent on average per year to reach 8.0 billion by the end
of the period;
• The Middle East and Africa will drive the global population growth, as its
population is estimated to increase the fastest, by 27.0 percent or 368 million
in absolute terms during the 2014-2025 period. The region has the highest
fertility rate in the world, with 4.6 children being born per female on average
as of 2013. Another region which will also see a rapid increase in population
will be Australasia, primarily due to growing immigration influx;
• Asia Pacific will, however, remain the most populous region, with India
witnessing the most rapid population expansion by 178 million between
2014 and 2025 to reach more than 1.4 billion by the end of the period. India
will outstrip China to become the world’s most populous country by 2023;
• Due to extremely low fertility rates and emigration, Eastern Europe will be
the only region which sees its population shrinking by 1.5 percent during the
2014-2025 period. In 2013, Eastern Europe’s fertility rate stood at 1.6 children
born per female, compared to the global average of 2.9;
Euromonitor International Special Report
60
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